Real Talk!

Scientist and futurist, Ray Kurzweil has been uncannily accurate in the past making predictions by using what he calls the Law of Accelerating Returns. His track record and credibility are enough that the National Academy of Engineering has published his sunny forecast for solar energy.

In 1992, Kurzweil he received the national medal of Technology, the highest honour in technology in the United States, from President Clinton in a White House ceremony. He has also received scores of other national and international awards, including the 1994 Dickson Prize (Carnegie Mellon University's top science prize), Engineer of the Year from Design News, Inventor of the Year from MIT, and the Grace Murray Hopper Award from the Association for Computing Machinery. He has received twelve honorary Doctorates and honors from three U.S. presidents.

He has received seven national and international film awards. Ray's books include The Age of Intelligent Machines, The Age of Spiritual Machines, and Fantastic Voyage: Live Long Enough to Live Forever. Four of Ray's books have been national best sellers and The Age of Spiritual Machines has been translated into 9 languages and was the #1 best selling book on Amazon in science. In 2002, he was inducted into the National Inventors Hall of Fame, established by the U.S. Patent Office.

As an example of exponential growth, Kurzweil tells a story that in 1965 MIT had a computer that was housed in its own building and cost $11 million (in today's dollars) and was shared by all students and faculty. Four decades later, the computer in your cell phone is a million times smaller, a million times less expensive and a thousand times more powerful. That's a billion-fold increase in the amount of computation you can buy per dollar.

Kurzweil has recently predicted:

Within 5 years the exponential progress in nano-engineering will make solar power cost-competitive with fossil fuels
· Within 10 years we will have a pill that allows us all to eat whatever we feel like and never gain any unwanted weight
· In 15 years, life expectancies will start rising faster than we age
· In about 20 years 100% of our energy will come from clean and renewable sources, and a computer will pass the Turing Test by carrying on a conversation that is indistinguishable from a human’s.

Technology’s accelerating power is going to transform the world we know.

Last year, a group of Australian and American researchers spent time diving in the Tasman Fracture and at 3500 feet discovered a new species of anemone and at 4,000 feet, a never before seen carnivorous sea-squirt- a funnel shaped creature that snapped shut around its prey.

German and American astronomers using the U.S. National Science Foundation's Very Long Baseline Array radio telescope to rewrite the map of the Milky Way announced (in January 2009) that the Earth is moving 160,000 kilometres per hour faster than previously thought and that the galaxy probably has four, not two, spiral arms of gas and dust that are forming stars.

Also, in January 2009, team from the Joint Quantum Institute (JQI) at the University of Maryland (UMD) and the University of Michigan succeeded in teleporting a quantum state directly from one atom to another AND a research team from the Université de Montréal, Maisonneuve-Rosemont Hospital and Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory announced they have identified a gene that controls the normal and pathological aging of neurons in the central nervous system.

A paper published Jan. 28 in an advance online edition of the European Journal of Human Genetics, a Columbian team reports a finding a gene called the ELP4, associated with a mild, childhood form of epilepsy

The February edition of the journal “Science”, describes the discovery of a system of opposing genetic forces that determines why mammals develop a single row of teeth, while sharks sport several. Researchers discovered that turning off a single gene in mice resulted in development of extra teeth, next to and inside of their first molars and the extra teeth developed from tissue that normally does not give rise to teeth.

Dr Jason Head, lead author of a study revealed Titanoboa in the journal “Nature”. Titanboa lived in the South American rain forest about 60 million years ago and would measure at least 13 metres long from mouth to tail and weigh 1,135 kilograms, (2,500 pounds).

Just this month, Science published recent findings from scientists from Queen's University, University of Sheffield and California State University who have detected giant twisting waves in the lower atmosphere of the Sun. This new breed of solar wave is called the Alfvén wave and has been shown to transport energy into the Corona or outer layer.

Other newly released, recent research suggests that certain scales on butterfly wings are nanobiologically-tuned to absorb heat from sunlight, enabling the insect to survive in colder or higher-altitudes than normal.

Scientists Byoungwoo Kang and Gerbrand Ceder of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology found a tunnel shaped lithium compound that speeds up electron transfer within a battery that reduces charging time from hours to seconds.

The March 12th issue of the journal “Nature” says that a team, led by California Institute of Technology (Caltech), of scientists have discovered that lightweight fruit flies have evolved specialized neurons in their antennae that let them know not only when the wind is blowing, but also the direction from which it is coming.

The Journal of Investigative Dermatology released a statement; that a team of scientists at Oregon State University has recently identified a gene in the human body that seems to be the master regulator for skin development.

A March edition of “Nature Medicine” announced that South Korean researchers have found a neuropeptide responsible for transmitting pain information in the body can help heal damaged tissue.

Columbia University researchers announced a discovery that the wiring of motor neurons and muscles is regulated at the level of RNA. The Indian Space Research Organization (ISRO) announced on Monday (16th March) that, its scientists have discovered three new species of bacteria in the upper stratosphere of the earth and offer speculation that they may be of extraterrestrial origin.

I read somewhere today (while researching) that the Japanese declare their economy is in recession if it grows less than 3% per year.

Now, let’s be exponential… as I write this, it stands at about 6.7 billion souls, and it increases at about 3 per second. This is an increase of roughly 1.4% per year. Now do the math. Let's say that 1.4% growth continues for 10 years. By then, the world's population will be about 7.8 billion. By 30 years out, 10.4 billion. By the end of the century, 25.8 billion. By the year 2200, 111 billion. Run it out just one more century, to 2300, and you're at 470 billion. Getting a little crowded…. Ya think?

Now, consider the disparity between the resource use per person in the industrialized nations and the same use in the developing world. The average European, for example, uses more than twice as many resources as the average person in the world, and the average U.S. resident uses five times as much. Chances are, if you're reading this, you probably use far more than your share of the world's resources

Exponential growth cannot continue indefinitely. If the current world value for r (1.2%) remains unchanged, the world population would grow from its current 6.6 billion to 9.3 billion over the next 43 years (2050).

Will it? Probably not.

Could the earth's resources sustain such a population?

If not, how large a human population can live on this planet?

Some demographers say we have already exceeded the number. Others say the Earth can hold billions more.

"Anyone who believes exponential growth can go on forever in a finite world is either a madman or an economist" --Kenneth Boulding

Ray Kurzweil: There's even exponential growth in the rate of exponential growth.

Does all of this make your head spin? Surely it’s time to find a quiet place for some contemplation….

Let’s try to think positively… and with a little perspective…

note: this graph only shows countries with a population over 5 million on July 1, 2002 (est.).
The color indicates the size:
Orange means a country > 100 million
Blue means a country between 50 and 100 million
Green a country between 40 and 50 million
Yellow a country between 30 and 40 million
Lavender a country between 20 and 30 million
Pink a country between 10 and 20 million
Grey a country between 5 and 10 million.
note: two-letter code refer to ISO codes of countries.

2005 Population Stats:

Afghanistan 24,507,000

Australia 20,395,000 (6th largest, by size, at 7,686,850 km2)

Bangladesh 153,122,000

Canada 32,307,000 (2nd largest, by size, at 9,984,670 km2)

China 1,312,253,000 (4th largest, by size, at 9,596,960 km2)

Cuba 11,193,000

Egypt 77,154,000

France 61,013,000

Germany 82,409,000

Iceland 296,000

India 1,120,618,000 (7th largest, by size at 3,287,590 km2)

Iran (The Islamic Republic of) 70,765,000

Iraq 28,238,000

Italy 58,645,000

Japan 127,449,000

Latvia 2,292,000

Lebanon 4,082,000

Pakistan 165,816

Poland 38,198,000

Puerto Rico 3,913,000

Russian Federation 143,170,000 (first largest, by size, at 17,075,200 km2)

Spain 43,060

United Kingdom 60,261,000

United States 302,741,000 (third largest, by size, at 9,826,630 km2)

AND... to top it all off...
you really need to check these videos out:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ljbI-363A2Q

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pMcfrLYDm2U